Week 2 NFL Spreads Stack Touchdown Chalk After Melbourne

Six NFL games in Week 2 are priced at a touchdown or more, and the 49ers are 12.5-point home favorites after Melbourne. The SportsLine Projection Model, which runs every game 10,000 times, still has the Seahawks covering at Arizona and the Buccaneers covering at home against Cleveland.

That is the public board after one week of 2026 tape. The older board, the one that does not care about Australia or a 13-10 Kickoff win, has spent seven seasons telling a colder story about Week 2 home chalk.

Six Week 2 Games Are Priced at a Touchdown

The SportsLine board for Week 2 of the 2026 season lists 16 games and no byes. Six of those lines sit at -7 or larger, a cluster the model itself flagged as the opening week feeding the numbers. San Francisco’s -12.5 is the fattest spread of the young season. Philadelphia is the only road team in that group, laying 7 at Tennessee after the Titans’ 23-10 loss to the Jets.

THE TOUCHDOWN-PLUS BOARD

Kansas City is the next number down, at -6.5 against Indianapolis, and does not join the touchdown club. The model enters the week on a 53-39 run on top-rated picks dating to 2024 and is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on those plays since it launched. It has already published an underdog it projects to win outright by a touchdown, and it is keeping that name behind the paywall.

Home Favorites Cover 35.1 Percent of Week 2

numberFire’s sample since 2019 is the cleanest long look at what those fat numbers have done in Week 2. Favorites still win at almost the same clip as Week 1 (64.6 percent, against 64.5 percent in openers). They cover only 40.2 percent of the time, down from 45.0 percent in Week 1. Home favorites are the leak: they win 63.2 percent of those games and Week 2 home favorites cover 35.1 percent.

WEEK 2 COVER RATES SINCE 2019

• Favorites, outright: They win 64.6 percent of Week 2 games, almost identical to Week 1.
• Favorites, ATS: The cover rate falls to 40.2 percent once the first Sunday is in the books.
• Home favorites, ATS: The 35.1 percent cover rate is the figure that sits under San Francisco, Tampa Bay, Baltimore, and Los Angeles this weekend.
• 1-0 hosts vs 0-1 visitors: In a 19-game slice, those hosts won 52.9 percent and covered 33.3 percent.

Week 1 of 2026 did not look like a dog market. Favorites went 12-4 straight up and 9-6-1 against the spread, part of a 37-11 outright run in Week 1 over the last three years, per systems analyst Steve Makinen. The league also tied a Week 1 scoring mark with 791 points across 16 games, a 49.4-point average that included the highest-scoring Week 1 game in NFL history, Chicago 59, Carolina 37, beating the 88-point Buccaneers-Saints opener in 2018.

That is the tape oddsmakers just priced. The cover rates above are what that tape has done to Week 2 home numbers for seven years.

Melbourne Still Shows Up in the 49ers Number

San Francisco’s 12.5-point home price is the hangover line. The 49ers spent a week in Australia, then beat the Rams 27-7 at Melbourne Cricket Ground on a Thursday night in the United States (Friday morning locally). Brock Purdy completed 25 of 34 passes for 205 yards and three touchdowns, with one interception and 29 rushing yards. Mike Evans scored in his 49ers debut. Matthew Stafford was pulled with 3:05 left.

The travel split is no longer a preview item. San Francisco left on September 2 and treated the 16-hour flight and 17-hour clock change as a camp week. The Rams arrived about 28 hours before kickoff. Deebo Samuel said the difference was obvious once the teams took the field.

I love when they came out and they were booing. We were out here for a week. We enjoyed the city. I don’t think you can fly 16 hours and be ready to play.

Deebo Samuel, 49ers receiver, Channel Seven

Sean McVay, the Rams’ coach, said he would make no excuses. The box score still reads as a 27-7 defeat at Melbourne Cricket Ground, and Los Angeles now hosts the 1-0 Giants on Monday as a 7-point favorite with an extra day of rest. Miami, which lost 27-13 to Las Vegas in Week 1, is the team asked to cover 12.5 at Levi’s Stadium on Sunday.

FROM MELBOURNE TO THE WEEK 2 KICKOFFS

1. September 2: The 49ers leave San Francisco for Melbourne, giving themselves a week on Australian time.
2. September 9: The Rams land roughly 28 hours before kickoff after the same 16-hour flight.
3. September 10: San Francisco wins 27-7 in the league’s first regular-season game in Australia.
4. September 20: The 49ers host Miami as 12.5-point favorites at Levi’s Stadium.
5. September 21: The Rams host the Giants as 7-point favorites on Monday night at SoFi Stadium.

Makinen’s bounce-back list for teams that lost a Week 1 game by double digits is 53-30-3 against the spread over the last 14 seasons, 63.9 percent. Add the home-or-neutral filter, which includes Melbourne, and those clubs are 28-9 ATS since 2015, 75.7 percent. The Rams are on both lists. So are the Browns, Titans, Chargers, Dolphins, Packers, Panthers, Broncos, and Colts.

Seattle’s Spread Crashed After Darnold Left

The SportsLine model’s strongest published Week 2 play is Seattle -4.5 at Arizona, total 41.5, a 4:25 p.m. ET FOX game on September 20. The sim has the Seahawks covering well over 60 percent of the time and winning by double digits, an A-rated pick. Seattle is 6-1 against the spread with a rest edge since the start of the 2025 season, has beaten Arizona nine straight times, and is 8-1 ATS in that streak.

The number is not the number that opened. Arizona upset the Chargers 26-14 in Week 1, then drew 111 penalty yards, second-most on the slate. Sam Darnold lasted five snaps of the Kickoff Game on September 9, completing 1 of 2 for 13 yards before a hip injury on a Dre’Mont Jones sack. Mike Macdonald said imaging ruled out a fracture and called it a muscle issue. By September 14 the club had labeled it a very unique soft-tissue injury, kept him off injured reserve, and declined to set a return date.

Drew Lock finished that night 16 of 22 for 187 yards and a touchdown in a 13-10 win. Jaxon Smith-Njigba caught 8 passes for 122 yards, including a 45-yard score from Lock on fourth down after New England had led 10-0 in the third quarter. Drake Maye threw three interceptions. The defending champions are 1-0, on the road, with a backup, against a 1-0 division rival, and the model is still on them at -4.5.

Makinen’s totals systems both point under in this game: clubs that won Week 1 by 3 or fewer points have gone 44-23-1 to the under in Week 2 since 2005, and teams that beat a non-conference spread by 8 or more are 22-12-3 to the under the next week. Arizona qualifies on the second count. The SportsLine total is still 41.5.

Mayfield Hosts Cleveland With a Bad Taste

Tampa Bay is the other public model lean, -8.5 against Cleveland at Raymond James Stadium on Sunday at 1 p.m. ET, total 40.5. The sim has the Buccaneers covering in well over 50 percent of runs and the over hitting in well over 60 percent. Cleveland looked like the worst team on the Week 1 tape, losing 34-10 at Jacksonville, taking five sacks on Deshaun Watson, and scoring its only touchdown in garbage time. The Browns are 4-14 against the spread on the road since 2024, the worst such mark in the league.

Tampa Bay is 0-1 for a different reason. The Buccaneers lost 33-27 at Cincinnati after Baker Mayfield completed 23 of 28 passes for 216 yards with no touchdown passes, no interceptions, 30 rushing yards, one rushing score, and three lost fumbles. NFL Next Gen Stats put the win-probability cost of those fumbles at 32.9 percentage points. He had just signed a three-year extension that put him in the $55 million-per-year tier. He hosts the franchise that drafted him first overall in 2018 and later traded him.

I mean, obviously, there’s history there, there’s no way to go around that. It’s the next opponent. Cleveland happens to be the next opponent, our home opener. So, yeah. Have a bad taste in our mouth, looking forward to getting it out.

Baker Mayfield, Buccaneers quarterback

Two Tampa records now sit on the same game and do not cancel. The Buccaneers are 0-10 against the spread in their last 10 games, a skid that includes last season’s collapse and the Cincinnati opener. They are also 9-0 straight up and against the spread in Week 2 over the last decade, the hottest Week 2 franchise on Makinen’s decade lists, ahead of Buffalo’s seven straight outright Week 2 wins. The model is on the 9-0 side. The 35.1 percent home-favorite rate is the other side.

Double-Digit Losers Keep Covering the Next Week

The public cards posted since Sunday have stacked San Francisco’s moneyline, Tampa Bay’s, Baltimore’s, and Los Angeles’s. Survivor pools still alive after Week 1 have leaned harder on the 49ers than on anyone else on the board. The other posted sides have been the points with Miami, Arizona, the Giants, and Tennessee, including an early card on Miami and Arizona from betting analyst Frank Ammirante (Dolphins +13, Cardinals +5.5, plus Buffalo -3.5 and Las Vegas +7).

Makinen’s Week 2 systems, built for the overreaction window and not for a full season, keep landing on those dogs.

THE WEEK 2 BOUNCE LIST

• Small road dogs: Underdogs of +1 to +6.5 are 44-17 ATS in Week 2 since 2016, and 26-6 (81.3 percent) when they also lost Week 1. His 2026 names off a loss include Washington and Indianapolis.
• Second home favorites: Teams favored in a second straight home game are 6-19 ATS (24 percent) over the last 14 seasons. The fades are Houston, the Chargers, and Kansas City.
• Both clubs 0-1 ATS: Underdogs in those games are 30-15-2 ATS since 2014. The 2026 dogs are Atlanta, Cleveland, and Tennessee.
• Close home winners: Home teams that won Week 1 by 7 or fewer are 6-15-3 ATS in Week 2 since 2019. The fade is Buffalo on Thursday night.

The Chargers sit in two of those buckets at once. They lost as a Week 1 favorite, they host a second straight home game as a 7-point favorite, and they are on the double-digit-loss bounce list after falling 26-14 to Arizona. Las Vegas, which just beat Miami 27-13, is the road dog in that building. That is the shape of a Week 2 number that moved because of one Sunday, not because of a year of data.

Buffalo Opens a 16-Game Weekend With No Byes

Thursday night is Detroit at Buffalo, September 17 at 8:15 p.m. ET on Prime Video, Bills -4.5, total 53.5. Buffalo won 36-31 over Houston in Week 1, with Josh Allen throwing for 334 yards and two scores and adding two rushing touchdowns. Detroit survived New Orleans 31-30 in overtime after leading 21-0, Jahmyr Gibbs going for 156 yards and two scores on 29 carries. The 53.5 is the highest total on the SportsLine board. Makinen’s close-winner under system tags this game, as it does Pittsburgh at New England and Seattle at Arizona.

The rest of Sunday’s 1 p.m. window is Houston -3 over Cincinnati, New England -5.5 over Pittsburgh, Carolina -1.5 at Atlanta, Chicago -5.5 over Minnesota, and Green Bay -4 at the Jets, plus the Eagles, Ravens, and Buccaneers games already on the touchdown board. The late window adds Denver -3 over Jacksonville, Dallas -3.5 over Washington, and Kansas City -6.5 over Indianapolis, then the Seahawks and 49ers at 4:25 p.m. ET. Line-move trackers through Tuesday had Carolina flipping from plus money into a 1.5-point favorite and Tampa Bay moving from -6.5 to -8.5, the same 8.5 the model is backing.

SportsLine’s other public crumbs around the board include Atlanta covering in 64 percent of simulations at +1.5, Philadelphia as a listed spread play at -7, and Dallas winning nearly 60 percent of the time against Washington with the over near 70 percent at 50.5. The Patriots, in the same model’s survivor note, win 57 percent of the time against Pittsburgh by about 3 points, which is why that staff called New England a risky knockout pick. The underdog it says wins by a touchdown is still unreleased.

Thursday’s kickoff in Buffalo is the first chance to see whether Week 2’s home chalk holds the way the 12-4 opening Sunday implied, or the way the 35.1 percent cover rate has held since 2019. The 49ers, Buccaneers, Ravens, and Rams will not play until that question already has a one-game sample.

Disclaimer: This article is news reporting and analysis of NFL odds, computer simulations, and historical betting results, and it is for information only. It is not sports-betting advice, a tip service, or a recommendation to place any wager on Week 2 or any other slate. Anyone considering a bet should check local law, use a licensed operator, and consult a qualified gambling-counseling resource if betting is a problem (in the United States, 1-800-GAMBLER). Spreads, totals, injury statuses, and model records cited here reflect the sources as dated in the piece and will change before kickoff.